05 May, 2018

A Portfolio for Recession

Global investors have one recent concern in common: Recession

It has been 10 years and we probably feel the next is coming very soon.
None of us will know when, so what is the best thing to do?
Sell all your holdings to risk losing to inflation? Probably no.
Hold on to your current eggs? Maybe not too.

I am not sure what others have in mind but this strategy came into my mind while I was trying to sleep:
1. Create a “Wish list” of companies to hold for Recession.
2. Sell the companies not found in your “Wish List” whenever it reaches the desired price. (Or sell when the fundamentals are deteriorating)
3. Watch the companies you want to “acquire” closely. Buy ONLY when there is value and NOT due to rashness to get in.
4. If you fail to get these companies, the recession will present you the buying opportunity. (thus there is no rush)

Next, I want to share with you guys a blog which I have been reading known as Crossing Wall Street. Eddy Elfenbein is a value investor whose daily blogs follow the market trends, earnings reports and some interesting insights well focused on US companies.. He also keeps an annual “Buy List” for everyone, which has been beating the market for most of the years in the last decade. Do check it out.

In case some of you are not aware, there is a new CNBC documentary on Warren Buffet,  which premiere yesterday. Can't wait to watch!
Warren Buffett: Investor. Teacher. Icon
Volatility/Opinion:
Back to the recent hype on volatility, I have been pondering to buy some Gold mine stocks as a hedge.
Not too sure if it is a good idea given that gold and USD has an inverse relationship while the currency is already at its lows.

Still a Long on US growth stocks and Singtel. There is definitely Value in UK due to Brexit fears and I am looking to scope some.
Airline companies are to watch due to expected strong growth in demand on seat capacities and increased freight/cargo movements (thanks to E-commerce).


“Just because the price goes down doesn’t mean you’re wrong.
(Just because the price goes up doesn’t mean you’re right.)”
–Peter Lynch

4 comments:

  1. Unintelligent Nerd5 May 2018 at 20:33

    Hi Frowns88,

    Thanks for sharing the Crossing Wall Street link. One of their more recent articles already corroborated some of my US stock selections. Kekeke :D

    ReplyDelete
  2. Frowns885 May 2018 at 21:56

    Hi UN,

    No problem, glad you like it. I personally want to invest in JM Smucker too but they may have trouble attracting the millennials in the future. What do you think?
    https://www.fooddive.com/news/can-food-companies-keep-pace-with-millennials-preferences/439414/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unintelligent Nerd6 May 2018 at 16:05

      Hi Frowns88,

      Thanks for the link! Well, let's just say that some consumer staples companies are doing a better job at attempting to engage millennials than others. They are more proactive in identifying what millennials want.

      I am thinking of gold miners as well. Most probably a senior gold miner ETF. How about yourself?

      Delete
  3. Frowns886 May 2018 at 22:40

    Hi UN,

    Not much an ETF fan here haha. Am looking at US and AU gold mine stocks. Then again,gold and global risks seemed to have a weak relationship. Another concern is USD looks bottom now while gold and USD has inverse relationship. This means gold may have downside if USD were to rebound. Makes sense? :)

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)