25 March, 2017

Should Moonlighting be encouraged?

I have not updated my blog for a month as there were not much changes in the market (it is still priced at high levels) and also that I was too busy focusing on my work even on weekends. That is what you get working for big companies and when given a laptop to work with. 

Never had I heard of any one saying his or her salary is enough. It is likely most people who want more income outside their monthly pay check will think of "Moonlighting". Policies for permanent jobs mostly restricted employees to work for a second job. It is likely they are afraid of the employees getting overworked and losing focus on their main job. The extra job will also tire him out, which is not a healthy choice. However, it is very obvious many Uber and Grab drivers are earning extra cash apart from their main jobs. 

I have a friend who has approached me to be his relief driver while he has just joined. The money and incentives from Uber is not bad but is working 7 days a week a smart choice? I quite disagree it is despite the temptation of extra income. Adding on, it is dangerous to drive when one is tired. It is not just about earning extra, being more tired and having almost no personal time. Your health gets jeopardized while you have to endure some nasty face to face complaints from customers (especially if you rely entirely on GPS, you are bound to get lost at small roads. That is what I heard from some drives) I personally will give it a pass for now. 

Back to passive income and investing, I have cashed out on City Dev and DBS recently as I feel it is a premium to sell. At the same time, I bought some REITS recently as I feel they are up for a rebound and have significant upside to come. Capitaland Retail China Trust (CRCT) and Frasers Commercial Trust (FCT) were added and so majority of my portfolio is now from REITS. ($1.415 and $1.26)

I understand that rising interest rates are not good for properties but if you read into it, these two REITS are quite prepared for the hike. Adding on, their high dividends can deter some downside risk along with the safety margin made by my low price entry.

As for the blue chips, it is a “wait and see” moment.

30 January, 2017

This Catalist is selling at its lowest point

Recently, I have made a discovery on a catalist stock, which was one of the top 5 actively traded stocks last Friday- it is both a penny stock and a catalist. I am no speculator but it is interesting observing ,especially when this counter is getting oversold. Having a friend who plays pennies while I am on the contrary a long-term investor, he is a better guide at such trading practice.

He claimed that from the looks of it, there is still no bottom despite hitting its all-time lows. If its current price is its support, a rebound is going to make a trader profit handsomely in a matter of days. This is indeed a very risky play for a good piece of meat but who can be ascertain if there is really any meat?

The image speaks for itself and I believe speculators will be eyeing QT closely. If one reads into QT, it is actually a firm with a few years of earnings deficits and thus a ideal counter for quick in and out trading. From what I learnt, speculators play with charting while they do not give a damn about market news and conditions. It may be fun to watch.

-The writer/author of this blog does not accept any liabilities or losses that arises from the writings/contents of this blog
-Any companies' names mentioned in this blog does not imply a "Buy", "Hold" or "Sell" recommendation. They are simply just for discussion purposes

21 January, 2017

21/1/17: How are my investments doing?

In December, most investors were away for holiday and we were mostly cautious waiting till Trump to step up as President this morning. STI has been growing slowly over the 3,000 range while Dow Jones Index flirts with the 20,000 mark. There are still many expectations about USA’s protectionism policies along with China’s plan to dominate the world. However, USA and China needs each other as much as they would need the world trade. By declaring trade wars, it can only inversely impact their own nations’ exports and profits- I believe. Thus, I am not pretty sure about the news being reported these days. Are they speculations or simply just opinions? If they turn out to be accurate forecasts, I do not know what to expect as an investor.

In long-term investments, I learnt that it is not ideal to expect an “all-green” portfolio but it is still possible. Here are two examples. 
1. Jesse enters the market at different intervals throughout the year of 2016. He entered 6 different stocks whenever they hit their lows (different sectors) at different months. In January 2017, he finds that all his 6 stocks are earning a paper gain. 
2. Jeff enters DBS, OCBC and UOB all at once in the month of June. All are in the same financial and banking sector. In January 2017, he finds that all his stocks are earning a paper gain mostly due to the Trump rally.

Despite that the outcome being similar for both scenarios, Jesse did diversify his investments. This means that the 6 shares prices are likely to offset each other in terms of both gains and losses at any time. In other words, risks are better mitigated due to holding a pool of sectors. However, Jeff is likely to get hit with either a great profit or a total great loss since all his holdings are from the same sector. I believed I am the Jesse in the story and this goes the same for many defensive investors. Still, paper gains or losses are just "noises" and one should not exhaust their emotions by being too happy or sad as it is just temporary.

Above is my performance as of this month and I am looking to sell off one of them when the price is right. After which, I may hunt for a high dividends REIT to further increase my dividends capital since my portfolio lacks dividends returns. Meanwhile, FCL is under CD and I am waiting to collect its dividends in February.  Also, SingTel and DBS will be releasing their results in February. 

31 December, 2016

Hits and Misses Of 2016

2016 is my first full year of investing and it has taught me a lot of lessons. I believed the same applies to many others who tried to beat the market. Nevertheless, it was a decent year for me. Before I share my 2016 track record, here are my hits and misses.

Hindsight/Highlights of 2016:
Finally graduated from university and found a better paying job with greater prospects. Degree may not be something great nowadays but it can be considered an important investment for corporate workers like us.

With the new job, I finally start earning better interests from my OCBC 360 account. This shall add on to some growth with the risk free “investment”. As per my situation, it can earn me 1.75% interests annually. As this is our savings, we can feel safer to place more money there.

The outlook of my initial investing days was terrible, with the Singapore market tearing down in the first trading days of 2016. It was great that I did some dollar averaging instead of selling.

Brexit did not affect me at all in my decisions and as I see it, it does not really affect the Singapore market much (yet?). It could have turned either way though.

Did some trading throughout the year. Despite some decent gains, one of my blue chips was sold too early due to pre-election days. If not, there will be higher paper gains and it could now be another of my dividends stocks. Again, this is hindsight but a gain is better than nothing or a loss.

Below is my overall performance and there are more to improve on. If I add in my OCBC 360 interests since August, I did hit my target of 4-6% realized gain this year.

Investments Alone:
Overall Realized Gain: 3.9% 
Total Realized/Paper Gain: 6.66%

With OCBC 360:
Overall Realized Gain: 5.13% 
Total Realized/Paper Gain: 7.88%

I am setting new targets for 2017 and will be looking forward to see how it will work out.
May 2017 be another exciting year of IPOs and volatility
Happy New Year, fellow investors!

24 December, 2016

Singpost and the STI components

Have one ever wondered why Singpost is not in the list of the STI index components while the renowned SingTel, Starhub, Keppel , SGX , SIA , SATS and the 3 financial blue chips are among the constituents. The thought may have come across but a little more research shall clear this mist. Singpost is actually one of them in the reserve list of STI index. Do take a look here to understand why. (No guarantees on its accuracy)

Going by the 7 rules/criteria of a defensive investor (Benjamin Graham’s theory), I have given my ratings below but not in detailed calculation. 1 point is given whenever the share meets the criteria while none is given when it fails to meet the criteria.  0.5 points are given for those which partially met the criteria. For example, under the criteria of “having 20 years dividend payment” is not entirely applicable to Singpost because it is only listed in 2003. However, it has never stopped paying dividends ever since. Thus, 0.5 is given for fairer comparison.
Rightfully, all 7 criteria must be met. Since this is our own analysis, feel free to give your own leeway.

Below findings as of 22nd December 2016:

1. SINGPOST: 5.5/7
2. SINGTEL: 5/7
3. DBS: 7/7
4. CITYDEV: 6.5/7
5. KEPPEL CORP: 6.5/7

The 3 criteria for which all 5 shares have met are:
-Adequate size
-No earnings deficit in the past 5 to 10 years 
-P/E ratrio of less than 15 for the past 3 years 

Obviously, the findings showed that the theory alone (like many others) cannot be independently relied on. Even with high ratings, the industry which the shares are from may be in a current negative outlook. DBS may have scored full marks but are still exposed to expected higher non-performing loans if market continues to slow down, leading to more unpaid debts.

Keppel Corp may look good at 6.5 but the oil rigs are still oversupplied. Cutting oil production will only help in reducing global oil supply but it is unlikely to help in the oversupply of oil rigs. Nevertheless, Keppel Corp has other forms of business other than oil. Lastly, Singpost fared fairly at 5.5 but its stock price is highly overvalued. Adding on, you probably will think twice if you read the link I gave earlier by fool.sg

On a side note, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6) is currently trailing cheap and I have added it in my watch list with skeptic. Though most of its operations are based in the almighty China, the container ship business does not look desirable as we can see from the Hanjin crisis and ocean carrier business. We should ask will more vessels be required when there are excess vessels already being idle due to majority of the sea freight business being taken up by Maersk and MSC.